The Week Ahead 27.11.2023

There continues to be some important macro data coming out both in the US and Europe this week. On the 30th, flash EU core inflation will be released with the current rate standing at 4.2%. With continuing slow growth in the bloc, policy officials at the ECB will hope to see the rate fall further. In the US on the same day, the latest PCE Index, the Federal Reserves preferred method of tracking inflation, will be released. The current rate stands at 3.4%. On the 31st, US manufacturing PMI is released. The current value of the index 46.7, indicates a contraction in manufacturing in the US. However, if the index does tick up above 50, it will signal growth and may begin to push inflation higher again.

Earnings

Nvidia’s impressive earnings last week concluded the release of the ‘Magnificent 7’ quarterly earnings. Despite that, there are still some big names to announce this week. Intuit, the fintech software platform will release their earnings on the 28th, the stock has rallied c.44% YTD. Salesforce will publish their Q3 earnings on the 30th. The cloud-based service provider has benefitted from the AI hype this year and has seen its stock rise c.66% YTD. Dell Technologies will also publish their Q3 earnings on the same day.

Chart of the Week

As we approach the end of the earnings cycle its worth looking to see how each sector performed in the backdrop of a challenging macro environment. Communication and IT companies have surprised to the upside while the Real Estate sector has the lowest percentage of ‘beats’. If current levels become the final numbers for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since Q3 2021.