Escape Velocity?

The Unio Global Macro Council has issued its November Outlook entitled 'Escape Velocity?'.

The Council's commentary is summarised below:

Macro Outlook 2023

This year's dominant macroeconomic themes include persistent inflation, high interest rates, and surprisingly calm markets. Despite concerns, economic activity has rebounded from the brink of recession, and equity volatility is at its lowest for the year.

Optimistic View for 2024

Looking ahead to 2024, there's optimism that inflation will decrease, bond yields will retreat, and central banks may lower interest rates.

Escape Velocity and Economic Challenges

The central question for the upcoming year is whether major economies can achieve "escape velocity" from the challenges of high debt and stubbornly high interest rates. While Europe faces limited fiscal stimulus options, positive indicators include a healthy labour market.

Thematic Focus and Electoral Schedule

The main investment themes for 2024 will revolve around near-record levels of debt across governments, households, and companies, coupled with a busy global electoral schedule. The potential re-election of Trump poses a significant risk, potentially leading to a loss of faith in US assets by investors.

Read the report in full: GMC Outlook November 2023

About the Global Macro Council

With the investment climate and world economy challenged by high interest rates and inflation, to name but two risks, Unio Wealth Management has spent time and attention on upgrading our investment process for a changed world.

In terms of new governance, we have created the Global Macro Council (GMC) to analyse macroeconomic developments and explain the impact on investments. The GMC is a body of experts, strategists and client facing advisers that craft the Unio house view on the macroeconomic outlook. Meeting monthly, the Council produces the Global Macro Council Report.

Members of the Unio Global Macro Council

Eunice Dreelan, Terry Devitt, Alex Kinsella, Ger Fitzgerald, Lenny McLoughlin, Mike O'Sullivan, Richard White, Paddy Swan.

Strategists - Aaron Dempsey, Stephen Roche

At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.

If you have any questions on any of the information provided in this update, speak to your Client Manager or contact us at enquiries@unio.ie.