The Week Ahead 10.10.2023
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It’s a busy week in the US across the board. Starting off on Wednesday the FOMC Minutes for September will be released. As Chairman Jay Powell continues to offer hawkish commentary, economists and analysts will be scrutinising the minutes in an effort to get a clearer view of the central bank’s thinking. Following that on the 12th annual inflation data in the US will be released. The current rate stands at 3.7% however the rally in oil prices may well push the headline rate higher for September. Outside the US, it’s worth keeping an eye on UK GDP data on the 12th followed by Chinese inflation data on the 13th. With China having entered a period of deflation, economists predict a slight rise from 0.1% to 0.2% month on month for September.
The big financial institutions will publish their quarterly earnings this week. Two of the biggest banks in the world, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will report on the 13th. In Q2, JP Morgan saw a strong performance due to increased deposits from retailers who moved their savings from smaller regional banks in the wake of contagion fears following the collapse of SVB. It will be interesting to see if the same trend continued in Q3. Also on the 13th, the world largest asset manager, BlackRock will post their Q3 earnings.
Chart of the Week
Q3 proved a difficult quarter for equities as hawkish Federal Reserve comments suggested that interest rates will remain at elevated levels for longer than expected. On the flip side the US dollar rallied as investors looked for safer assets due to the current macro backdrop.
Weekly global equities chart, tracking the performance of major stock markets.
Monitoring the fluctuations in bond yields across international markets.